The weakness of the hottest steel futures reflects

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The weakness of steel futures reflects the plight of the industry

before the fundamental change in the relationship between supply and demand, the weak operation is still the main style of the medium-term trend of the steel market. It is expected that during the "silver 10" period in 2012, the focus of the screw thread futures price will still gradually move upward, and the target position will temporarily reach 4000 points, and then with the arrival of the off-season demand, the lower target position will be 3000 points. The macro environment is cautiously optimistic, and market sentiment is expected to warm up. The Federal Reserve has launched the third round of quantitative easing (qe3), and there is still room for decline after the short-term rebound of the US dollar index. In the early morning of September 14, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate resolution and launched qe3. Different from the previous two times, the implementation of this open QE is unlimited and indefinite. Therefore, it has more room for imagination. The qe3 launched this time is the most important policy change of the Federal Reserve since the financial crisis. For the first time, the Federal Reserve has linked the policy to economic development and promised that it will not change the policy if it fails. The launch of qe3 is a major positive for bulk commodities. It is expected that the US dollar index will face greater rebound momentum after a short-term sharp decline, and there is still room for further decline after the rebound. The European Central Bank launched the "direct currency transaction" (OMT) program, and the optimism factors in the euro zone increased. The European debt crisis still affects the economy of the euro zone, and then drags down the global economy. On September 6, President Draghi of the European Central Bank announced the details of the highly anticipated bond purchase plan. The European bank plans to launch a plan called OMT to purchase unlimited write off bonds in the euro zone secondary bond market, mainly for bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years. Whether the European bank plan can be successfully implemented has become the next focus of investors. However, subject to Germany's opposition and concern about the ECB's excessive participation in the European debt crisis relief action and the strict conditions for the launch of the OMT plan, there are still many obstacles before the plan can be put into practice. The soothing effect of the OMT plan on the market is likely to fade gradually due to the long-term failure of the plan. Investors are cautious about the economy of the euro zone. China's September HSBC manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the previous month, with a stable decline. The preview value of HSBC manufacturing PMI in China in September was 47.8, and the final value of HSBC PMI in August was 47.6, which was below the 50 boom and bust line for 11 consecutive months. The growth rate of domestic manufacturing industry still slowed down, but the decline began to stabilize. With the arrival of the peak production season and the implementation of a series of national "stabilizing foreign demand" policies, we have reason to expect that PMI may continue to rise slowly in the fourth quarter, and the domestic economy is expected to stabilize gradually. The macro environment is cautiously optimistic. In addition, it coincides with the small peak season of domestic infrastructure investment, and the basic metal plate is collectively rising. The thread futures price is also expected to continue to strengthen with the peripheral industrial products. The deep correction of raw material costs has greatly weakened the cost support effect. After the sharp decline of iron ore prices, there is still room for decline. At present, iron ore accounts for about 40% of the cost of steel, and its price trend will directly affect the price of steel. The iron and steel industry is one of the pillar industries in China. With the acceleration of China's industrialization and urbanization, domestic iron and steel consumption is growing rapidly. The rapid growth of iron and steel production and consumption level has brought about the rising demand for iron ore. At present, the mining of domestic iron ore is very difficult, and the mineral grade is mostly lower than 30%, which can not meet the domestic demand. We must import a large number of foreign high-quality iron ore to meet the production. On the 24th, according to the latest statistics of United metal, the iron ore inventory in 34 ports across the country was 105.45 million tons. According to different countries, the iron ore inventory in Australia was 41.7 million tons, that in Brazil was 27.13 million tons, and that in India was 12.4 million tons. The total iron ore inventory at the port is still increasing slowly and slightly. Since July, 2012, the price of imported ore has shown an accelerated downward trend, once falling to $88/ton in early September, a decrease of 24.1%. The profits of the iron ore industry shrank significantly. At the beginning of September, Vale, the world's largest iron ore supplier, had to sell ships to save cash flow, while FMG, the fourth largest miner, delayed the development of a large iron ore under its control and planned to lay off workers in order to save costs. Other miners and institutions also lowered their expectations for future prices. Albertocalderon, chief commercial officer of BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, said at a conference in Canberra, Australia, on September 26 that the first stage of China's economic development is coming to an end, and the demand for iron ore has slowed by half. At the same time, he pointed out that in the past decade, China has a huge demand for iron ore, and the iron and steel industry has not developed mature. This stage will not be repeated. It is expected that the profit of iron ore will still be considerable in the future, but there will be no more ultra-high pricing caused by shortage. FMG executives have said that iron ore prices are expected to fall sharply and will not rebound until the output of China's steel industry resumes growth. Due to the contraction of the real economy and weak domestic demand, there is still room for further decline in the price of imported iron ore. In general, iron ore port inventories have reached new highs, and there is still room for further downward revision of prices. We expect that there is still room for downward movement in the medium and long term, and the cost support effect on steel prices is weakened. The double squeeze of cost and demand is short-term positive and difficult to solve the industry dilemma. At present, the main contradiction in the coke market lies in the coexistence of overcapacity and coking enterprise production restriction. In 2012, the coke output still showed an increasing trend, and the growth rate changed from two digits to single digits. The domestic steel market is in a downturn. In order to stabilize the price, limiting and reducing production have become the mainstream, and the coke output has decreased slightly. In August, 2012, the coke output decreased by 1.55 million tons compared with the previous month, with a month on month decrease of 4%. According to the news from United Steel, according to the leaders of China coke Association for purchasing, China's coke production base is large at present, so even with a single digit growth rate, the coke production will exceed 440million tons this year. Limiting, reducing and overhauling coking enterprises will become a straw to alleviate the excess supply of resources. With the increase of enterprise losses, the output of coking enterprises is at a low level, and the market may gradually stabilize in the later stage. In the first three quarters of 2012, the coke price fell simultaneously with the upstream and downstream markets. Compared with the steel market, the callback range of the domestic coke market was even greater. On the one hand, the international coking coal price also fell sharply. BHP Billiton Nippon Steel supplied hard coking coal at an FOB price of $170/ton in the fourth quarter of 2012, which was $55/ton lower than the price of $225/ton in the third quarter of 2012, a quarter on quarter decline of 25%. As the price of international hard coking coal plummeted, the downward trend of the domestic coking coal market remained unchanged in September, and the cost supporting factors of the coke market would no longer exist; On the other hand, the domestic steel price fell sharply in the second and third quarters. The coking enterprises lacked pricing power and were forced to lower the price. While the downstream steel market was in the traditional off-season in the fourth quarter, it would be difficult to change the low inventory operation strategy adopted by the steel plant. The coke purchase was mainly to meet the current production, expand the procurement channels, and actively promote the coke price reduction. The combination of sluggish demand and falling costs makes it difficult to change the weakness of the coke market. We believe that in the future, overcapacity and sluggish demand will still be the main factors limiting coke prices. The decline in the profitability of the coke industry in the fourth quarter of 2012 will continue to be the norm. The domestic coke market is still facing de stocking, and the mainstream is mainly stable. Recently, the state has started to issue favorable policies, and the market has favorable expectations for the convening of the 18th National Congress, which may boost the coke market to rise slightly; Before the end of the year, after the low inventory operation of the steel plant, we can still hope that the dual impact of "winter storage" and "spring transportation" may bring a small rebound in the coke market. It is difficult to be optimistic about the future of the industry facing "domestic and foreign troubles". At present, in addition to the "foreign troubles" caused by the macroeconomic slowdown at home and abroad, the industry's own "internal troubles" are also the key factors for the industry's sustained low profits, the most important of which is overcapacity. According to my iron and Steel Statistics, 63 new blast furnaces were installed in China in 2011, and it is expected that at least 34 new blast furnaces will be added in 2012. The new production capacity has exceeded 100million tons in two years. According to the statistics of the national development and Reform Commission, the domestic iron and steel production capacity has reached 900million tons. At the same time, the crude steel output was running at a high level. At the end of 2011, the daily average output was less than 1.7 million tons/day. Since 2012, the crude steel output often added PE in PP modification has gradually increased month on month. In April, the daily average crude steel output hit a new high of 2.019 million tons. The already meagre profit margin of the steel plant has narrowed rapidly, the steel plant has increased production reduction, and the crude steel output has dropped to a certain extent. As the overall level is still at a high level, it is difficult to fundamentally solve the contradiction of oversupply in the short term. Based on the above, we believe that in the short term, the release rate of steel mill output is slower than the decline rate of inventory, and the joint stimulus of qe3 dust settling and domestic good news will provide support for the rise of steel prices, and the domestic steel market has ushered in a long-term rebound. But in general, the weak fundamentals of steel obviously can not support the long-term and substantial rise of steel prices, and the rebound strength should not be overly optimistic; In the future, with the arrival of the consumption off-season, it is likely that the futures price will fall slowly. Favorable policies boost the short-term trend. The sluggish demand cannot change the medium-term weakness. At present, China's economy is still facing downward pressure. Since april2012, the central and local governments have successively introduced measures to stabilize growth. Due to the time lag of policies, so far, there has been no rebound in economic growth. The growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to fall. In August, the national fixed asset investment was basically the same as that in July. The investment growth rate fell below 20% to 19.36% for the second time this year. At present, many provinces in China have put forward investment plans for the second half of the year. At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission has also accelerated the project approval process. Although the number of investment projects has increased to a certain extent compared with the first half of the year, there are still major problems in the capital bottleneck of local investment. Under the premise of economic slowdown, policy regulation is expected to continue to focus on pre adjustment and fine adjustment. There is no new deal in the real estate industry, and the demand for the real estate market is stable. The tone of the state's strict regulation and control policies on real estate has not changed. According to the latest people's report, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently said that he would continue to guide and urge cities with purchase restrictions to strictly implement the measures of housing purchase restrictions to ensure the implementation effect of the measures. In due course, we will hold accountable those regions that have failed to implement and relaxed the control policies, resulting in the rapid rise of house prices. We will accelerate the study and improvement of policies and measures for regulating the real estate market, and improve the long-term mechanism for regulating the real estate market. As we all know, the rise and fall of real estate is closely related to steel consumption. Since the second quarter, residential sales have continued to pick up. At present, the housing market has ended the situation of "both volume and price rising" in the previous months, and there are signs of "volume falling and price stabilizing". The recently released data of the real estate industry in August showed that since August, the data of the real estate industry have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding: in August, the national housing boom index fell for 14 consecutive months and then bottomed out and rebounded; From January to August, the completed amount of national real estate development investment rose month on month; From January to August, the decline in the national real estate sales area and the new construction area of houses and residences narrowed to a certain extent. We believe that the current real estate market policy has bottomed out and is currently in the game period between the central government and local governments. The late pre mastertop 1327 ⑵ 0dB is an ideal solution to provide an environment with beauty, walking comfort and the lowest noise level. It is planned that the real estate policy will be gradually relaxed. The real estate sector is expected to benefit from the fine-tuning of macro policies. Recently, the central bank has stated that it will steadily increase the market liquidity. At present, it is not only reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering the interest rate, but also carrying out a large number of reverse repurchase operations recently to release the liquidity. However, the real estate sales are greatly affected by the liquidity. Once the market liquidity

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