China and the United States are not winners and bo

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Industrial robot competition: China and the United States are not winners, and there are serious backwardness

although the United States and China are fighting a 5g technology war, neither superpower can compete with Europe or Japan in the production of industrial robots

in the debate about the rise of China and the Reindustrialization of the United States, many analysts around the world claim that China threatens the leading position of the United States in industrial automation. However, the fact is obviously not so simple

Japan and Europe: at this stage, they still occupy a leading position in the robot field.

Japan and Europe surpassed the United States in the cutting-edge field long ago, and they are currently the world's leading supplier of industrial automation equipment

there are many aspects leading in the field of industrial automation, but industrial robots are a key indicator of the advanced degree and scale of a country's manufacturing industry. China has bought many industrial robots, but it is not a major producer. The United States has also bought many industrial robots, but the number is not as large as that of China

according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), China's industrial robot market has been the largest in the world since 2013. Since then, the size of China's industrial robot market has quadrupled. In 2018, China accounted for 36% of the total global installation, followed by Japan (13%), the United States (10%), South Korea (9%) and Germany (6%). The latest year with complete and finalized IFR statistics is 2018 (no 2019 data yet)

ifr's industrial robot statistics include handling, welding, assembly, dispensing, clean room, processing and other machines that can be easily identified as industrial robots. They do not include components such as precision gears, sensors, control units or software

by region, the classification of industrial robot installation in 2018 is: Asia Pacific 67%; Europe 18%; America 13%; Other 2%. According to the industry, robots are used in 30% of automobiles; Electrical and electronic 25%; Metal and machinery 10%; Plastic and chemical 5%; 3% for food and beverage; 19% is not specified

irf does not provide statistical data of industrial robot suppliers, but according to industry data and the survey results of lightstream research, Japanese manufacturers such as FANUC, Yaskawa and Kawasaki account for at least 60% of the global installed capacity. Abb, KUKA and other European enterprises contributed nearly 30% of the share. In terms of shipments, FANUC, Yaskawa, abb and KUKA are estimated to account for more than 70% of the global market

use in those structures that need heat to enter and leave quickly

however, the leading robot technology of Japan and Europe is not a bad thing for China

but this involves the question of what is counted and what is not counted. In 2016, the German company KUKA was acquired by China Midea Group. In the past five years, China has also acquired more than a dozen European and American industrial robot companies. These acquisitions are aimed at acquiring advanced technology and are currently facing strong resistance in Europe and the United States. Siasun is the largest manufacturer of industrial robots in China and is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Sciences

so far, this action has achieved initial success. According to an executive of Siasun, in an interview, "we have narrowed the gap with foreign enterprises in terms of quality and technology." In addition to supplying products to China and multinational companies, Siasun also exports to more than 30 countries. It has cooperative relations with 17 countries participating in China's "the Belt and Road" initiative

ifr data shows that robots made in China accounted for nearly 10% of the total installation of industrial robots in the world in 2018, and 27% in China - compared with 0% in 2012

when the United States wants to distance itself from China in the name of "decoupling", European and Japanese enterprises are helping China make industrial robots. In September 2019, the Swiss Swedish multinational ABB began to build a new factory near Shanghai

according to the draft of the project, "this will be the most advanced, automated and flexible factory in the global robot industry - a robot manufacturing center. The new factory will also set up an on-site R & D center, which will help accelerate innovation in the field of artificial intelligence."

ABB claimed that it was "the first robot manufacturer in China", and said that the plant planned to start next year was "a key global growth investment of the company in the world's largest robot market"

in the past three years, Japanese industrial robot manufacturers FANUC, Yaskawa and Kawasaki have also expanded their business in China

however, after eight years of growth, China's installed capacity fell by 1% in 2018, while Japan increased by 21%, the United States increased by 22%, and Germany increased by 26%. South Korea's installed capacity also fell by 5%. Market weakness has weakened demand in China and South Korea, while car related and other factory upgrades have surged in Japan, the United States and Germany

the growth of global total installed capacity slowed from 32% in 2017 and 20% in 2016 to 6% in 2018. IFR's latest estimate of the decline in both 2019 and the auto market is a decline of 10%. However, the corrected data should be released in September this year

so what will happen in 2020

due to the COVID-19 this year, the situation will be very bad. It may be as bad as in 2009, when the impact of the Lehman crisis led to a 47% decline in the total installation of industrial robots worldwide. Even if the number of installed and will continue to lead the global market demand has only fallen by half, it will also be a major setback for the industry. Fanuc, Japan's leading robot manufacturer, reported that its sales fell 19% year-on-year in the three months to June, and predicted that its sales would fall 17% in the fiscal year to March 2021. This is another decline after a 20% decline in the previous fiscal year

as demand gradually recovers, the United States wants to become a larger participant through the endless frontier act, which was proposed by Republican Senator toddyoung and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. The bill aims to consolidate the leadership of the United States in the field of scientific and technological innovation. The $700billion "buy American" plan proposed by the Democratic presidential candidate Biden is mainly used in public places such as hospitals, schools, office buildings, factories, supermarkets and home decoration markets to support the manufacturing industry and technology in the United States, which may also be helpful to the United States

at present, the trump administration's science and technology policy for China and other countries is: they are not allowed to make progress without the permission of the United States. However, at present, this policy is undoubtedly a measure of "harming others but not benefiting ourselves", and has fallen into the thinking set of "zero sum game". At the same time, this policy is not a sufficient or credible response to the competitiveness problem formed by the United States for decades

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI