The hottest Shanghai zinc medium-term wide range f

Shanghai zinc: medium-term wide fluctuation

since 2016, zinc has become a star variety of market attention. The two-year unilateral upward trend has amazed the market. Last week, Lun zinc once broke the high point of the past 11 years, hitting $3584/ton. Shanghai zinc boosted the supply side reform, and the main contract increased by 3.34% in a single day, once hitting 27235 yuan/ton within the day. From the perspective of the evolution of contradictions, the current consumption is in the off-season. However, the focus of the market game is not the short-term phased surplus, but whether the existing low inventory can meet the future gap. At present, it is relatively certain that the market is still in a shortage structure in 2018, and when the total amount of remaining inventory is low, the cost of controlling marginal variables is relatively small, so market sentiment will also be further amplified. It is estimated that the medium-term fluctuation range of Shanghai zinc main contract is 25000-29000 yuan/ton

under the high price, the increment of zinc concentrate is obvious

in 2018, there will be an increment of 490000 tons abroad without considering the resumption of production of Glencore; In 2019, without considering the possibility of resumption of production of Glencore, it is expected that overseas new and resumed production projects will achieve an increase of 480000 tons. Although Glencore investors' report predicts that the output in 2018 will be basically the same as that in 2017, the statistical caliber has changed due to the sale of African mine interests. The actual resumption of production in 2018 is about 92000 tons, an increase of 70000 tons in 2019, and an increase of 140000 tons in 2020

significant effect of inventory destocking

by observing the effect of zinc destocking at home and abroad in 2017, we found that the growth rate of global zinc consumption in 2017 was around 1%. Due to the different expectations of the market for the overall macro-economy in 2018, there were differences in the expectations for the growth rate of zinc consumption in 2018 and beyond

according to our assessment of the future 3. Control system maintenance: regularly check whether the connecting line of the rear panel of the controller is in good contact with the economy and consumption, 2018-2019 will maintain a consumption growth rate similar to that of previous years, that is, about 1%; If we look at the zinc balance in the next three years according to the consumption growth rate of 1%, there will be a sharp shortage of zinc ingots in 2018 and further digest the available inventory in the world, which is enough to see the universality of the utilization of pressure testing machines, but it will turn into excess and accumulate inventory in 2019, and continue to accumulate inventory in 2020

if consumption is better than expected, with a growth rate of 2% or even better, the zinc market will maintain a shortage structure in the next three years, and due to the limited zinc smelting capacity, it cannot meet the needs of zinc consumption. Therefore, when consumption growth is good, zinc smelting will have a bottleneck in 2020. Because we judge that there will be a relative surplus in the zinc concentrate market since 2019, while there is a shortage of zinc ingots, abundant raw materials and high zinc prices, so that smelting has a huge profit space. Therefore, it is not ruled out that under the huge profits, capacity construction and delivery speed up. Considering that there is a hard time period (about 1.5 years) from automatic civil engineering to trial production, maintenance should be carried out from these aspects: for the fixtures used to fix products on the machine, if the newly expanded capacity starts later than 2019, then under the background of good consumption growth, the shortage pattern will not be reversed in 2020. Therefore, the newly expanded smelting projects in the next few years will become a dynamic factor that the market will focus on

to sum up, the market is still in a shortage structure in 2018, and when the total remaining inventory is low, the cost of controlling marginal variables is relatively small, so the market sentiment will also be further amplified. It is estimated that the medium-term fluctuation range of Shanghai zinc main contract is 25000-29000 yuan tons